Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group G
Egyptvs
IR Iran
Friday, June 26, 2026 · 11:00 p.m. ET · Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, WA
My pick: Draw · locked 2026-06-25 11:45 UTCPrediction
A draw feels right in a tight Group G finale. Egypt sit on four points and can qualify by keeping the match controlled, while IR Iran have drawn twice and have made every opponent work through traffic. Salah and Marmoush give Egypt the higher ceiling, but Taremi and Iran's set defensive shape make a clean Egyptian win hard to call. 1-1.
The case for Egypt
35% to winEgypt can manage the table from the front: keep the block compact, feed Salah and Marmoush early, and trust the midfield to slow Iran's counter-attacks. With four points already banked, Hassan's side do not need chaos.
The case for IR Iran
31% to winIR Iran have been awkward for everyone, drawing New Zealand and Belgium while staying compact in a five-man back line. If Taremi gets service and Iran keep the first hour level, the pressure shifts onto Egypt to avoid slipping from a qualifying place.
Both cases written 2026-06-25, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 34% belongs to the draw.
Egypt 4-2-3-15-4-1 IR IranThe briefing
Storylines
- Egypt are on four points after drawing Belgium and beating New Zealand.
- IR Iran are unbeaten but need more than another passive draw to feel safe.
- Salah and Marmoush against Iran's back five is the match's central tactical problem.
- A draw may suit Egypt more than Iran, which changes the late-game incentives.
The coaches
Hossam Hassan Egypt
Egypt's combustible record goalscorer turned coach; sets up to get the ball to Salah and Marmoush in attacking areas.
Amir Ghalenoei IR Iran
Experienced Iranian coach who favours a disciplined, defensively solid 4-4-2 and counter-attacks through Taremi.
Weather: Mild Seattle evening at the open-air stadium, around the upper-60s Fahrenheit and typically dry in late June. (NWS seasonal climatology, as of 2026-06-25)
Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, WA, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
