Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group G
New Zealandvs
Belgium
Friday, June 26, 2026 · 11:00 p.m. ET · BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver
My pick: Belgium win · locked 2026-06-25 11:45 UTCPrediction
Belgium to win narrowly. New Zealand are organised and dangerous from set pieces, but they need more than resistance after taking one point from two matches. Belgium have drawn twice and must sharpen the attack, yet the De Bruyne-Trossard-Lukaku axis is the best unit on the pitch. Expect stress, but Belgium should find the one or two moments they need. 2-1 Belgium.
The case for New Zealand
21% to winNew Zealand can make this uncomfortable by slowing the tempo, winning second balls and turning every free kick into a Chris Wood target. Belgium have not been fluent, so a low-scoring match gives the All Whites a real upset lane.
The case for Belgium
50% to winBelgium still have the highest technical ceiling in Group G. De Bruyne can break the first line, Doku/Trossard can isolate defenders, and Lukaku gives them a penalty-box target New Zealand cannot ignore. The need to win should sharpen Garcia's side.
Both cases written 2026-06-25, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 29% belongs to the draw.
New Zealand 4-2-3-14-2-3-1 BelgiumThe briefing
Storylines
- Belgium have two draws and need a win to avoid leaving qualification to other groups.
- New Zealand have one point and need their set-piece game to travel to Vancouver.
- Belgium have not conceded in open play since the opener but have not converted pressure either.
- Chris Wood versus Belgium's center-backs is the direct route for an upset.
The coaches
Darren Bazeley New Zealand
The English coach has New Zealand organised, hard-working and dangerous from set pieces, built around target man Chris Wood.
Rudi Garcia Belgium
The French coach took over Belgium in 2025 and leans on a 4-2-3-1 built to get the ball to De Bruyne, Doku and Trossard in space.
Weather: Roof at BC Place in Vancouver — climate-controlled, no forecast needed. (Venue (retractable roof), as of 2026-06-25)
Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, Canada — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
