Sports · World Cup 2026 · Group I
Senegalvs
Iraq
Friday, June 26, 2026 · 3:00 p.m. ET · Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), Toronto
My pick: Senegal win · locked 2026-06-25 11:45 UTCPrediction
Senegal to win and at least give themselves something to sweat over in the third-place race. They have lost twice, but the defeats came against France and Norway and the front line still has enough pace through Mané, Sarr and Jackson to hurt Iraq. Iraq have conceded seven goals and need a huge swing to stay alive. Senegal's athletic edge should finally turn into three points. 2-0 Senegal.
The case for Senegal
48% to winSenegal have the better individual attackers and should be able to pin Iraq back with wide speed and set-piece pressure. After two narrow-feeling losses in a brutal group, this is the matchup where Pape Thiaw's side can finally play from in front.
The case for Iraq
25% to winIraq have no reason to be cautious now, and that can make a wounded side dangerous. Aymen Hussein gives them a direct target, Zidane Iqbal can carry the ball through midfield, and an early goal would turn Senegal's anxiety into the story.
Both cases written 2026-06-25, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 27% belongs to the draw.
Senegal 4-2-3-14-1-4-1 IraqThe briefing
Storylines
- Senegal have zero points but still have a route into the third-place mix with a win.
- Iraq have conceded heavily in both games and need a response in Toronto.
- Both teams must chase, which should open more space than the table position suggests.
- Mané and Jackson against Iraq's center-backs is the obvious pressure point.
The coaches
Pape Thiaw Senegal
Appointed in December 2024; led Senegal to the 2026 World Cup and favours an athletic, front-foot 4-3-3.
Graham Arnold Iraq
The Australian, appointed in 2025, guided Iraq to their first World Cup since 1986 and sets up compact and counter-attacking.
Weather: Warm, humid Toronto afternoon at the open-air stadium, around upper-70s Fahrenheit with lake-breeze variation. (Environment Canada seasonal climatology, as of 2026-06-25)
Venue: Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), Toronto, Canada — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
