Sports · World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
South Africavs
Canada
Sunday, June 28, 2026 · 3:00 p.m. ET · Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, CA
Watch: FOX · Telemundo
My pick: Canada advance · locked 2026-06-27 12:00 UTCPrediction
Canada to win and reach the round of 16. The co-hosts are clear favourites in the tournament's first knockout tie — Opta's model makes them roughly 55% to South Africa's 20% — with captain Alphonso Davies back in the squad after a hamstring injury and Jonathan David, hat-trick hero against Qatar, leading the line. South Africa have made history just by reaching the last 32, but Hugo Broos's side scored only twice in the group stage and may struggle to break Canada down. A tense, low-scoring tie that Canada's quality should settle. 2-0 Canada.
The case for South Africa
20% to winSouth Africa are a disciplined, well-coached unit under Hugo Broos and arrive with nothing to lose. If Bafana Bafana sit deep, frustrate Canada and spring Relebohile Mofokeng and Oswin Appollis on the counter, they can drag the tie to penalties or even nick it — and the return of Teboho Mokoena from suspension stiffens a midfield that ground out the win over South Korea.
The case for Canada
55% to winCanada have the stronger squad and home-continent advantage, with Jonathan David and Cyle Larin offering a proven scoring threat and Tajon Buchanan's width to stretch South Africa. The return of Alphonso Davies, even off the bench, hands Jesse Marsch a game-changer, and the 6-0 demolition of Qatar showed an attacking ceiling no one else in this half of the draw can match.
Both cases written 2026-06-27, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 25% belongs to the draw.
South Africa 4-2-3-14-4-2 CanadaThe briefing
Storylines
- The first knockout match of the 2026 World Cup — and a historic occasion, with both nations reaching the round of 32 for the first time ever.
- Canada are clear favourites: Opta's model gives the co-hosts a 55% win chance to South Africa's 20%.
- Alphonso Davies is in line to feature after missing the entire group stage with a hamstring injury.
- Canada become the first World Cup host nation to play a tournament match outside its own borders, with the game staged in the United States.
The coaches
Hugo Broos South Africa
The Belgian who won the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations with Cameroon has South Africa organised, compact and dangerous on the break.
Jesse Marsch Canada
The American, in charge since 2024, sets Canada up to press aggressively and attack at pace through David and Buchanan.
Availability
| Teboho Mokoena | Available — returns from a one-match suspension and is expected straight back into midfield | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-26 |
| Themba Zwane | Out — still suspended after his red card against Mexico in the opener | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-26 |
| Alphonso Davies | Doubt — yet to play at the tournament after a hamstring injury, but in line to feature off the bench | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-26 |
| Ismaël Koné | Out — suffered a tibia fracture against Qatar | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-26 |
| Stephen Eustáquio | Doubt — a muscle issue leaves him facing a late fitness check | Sports Mole preview (Matt Law) · 2026-06-26 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English (free over the air, or stream on Fox One) and Telemundo in Spanish (stream on Peacock); the free Tubi simulcast carries Telemundo's Spanish feed. (NBC News / FOX Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-06-27)
Weather: Warm, dry Southern California afternoon at Los Angeles Stadium — SoFi's translucent canopy shades the pitch while the open sides keep it in the air. (NWS Los Angeles seasonal climatology, as of 2026-06-27)
Referee: João Pinheiro (Portugal). (FIFA match appointment via ESPN match officials, 26 Jun 2026, as of 2026-06-27)
Venue: Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, CA, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
