Sports · World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
Portugalvs
Croatia
Thursday, July 2, 2026 · 7:00 p.m. ET · Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), Toronto
Watch: FOX · Telemundo
My pick: Portugal advance · locked 2026-07-01 12:15 UTCPrediction
Portugal to advance, though Croatia will make it awkward. Roberto Martínez's side reached the last 32 unbeaten and carry far more attacking depth behind Cristiano Ronaldo — Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes and João Félix all supplying a front line no one in Group K could contain. Croatia have made a habit of grinding out knockout football and, in the 40-year-old Luka Modrić, still have a midfielder who bends games to his will. But their route here — a 4-2 hiding by England, then narrow wins over Panama and Ghana — suggests a side living on its wits, and Portugal have won five of the last six competitive meetings. 2-1 Portugal, with a nervy finish.
The case for Portugal
57% to winPortugal have the deeper, younger squad and the better group form, top-to-bottom quality that lets Martínez rotate without dropping off. Vitinha and João Neves control midfield, the front four rotate fluidly, and Ronaldo — already a scorer at a record sixth World Cup — is still lethal in the box. Against a Croatia side that leaks chances and relies on veterans to see games out, Portugal's pace in transition should be decisive.
The case for Croatia
19% to winCroatia are the ultimate knockout survivors — three of the last four major tournaments have seen them go deep on nerve, organisation and Modrić's genius. Zlatko Dalić's men defend in numbers, are ruthless from set pieces, and in a one-off tie can drag anyone into extra time and penalties, where their experience tells. If Gvardiol and Šutalo smother Portugal's runners and Modrić dictates the tempo, the upset is very much on.
Both cases written 2026-07-01, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 24% belongs to the draw.
Portugal 4-2-3-14-3-3 CroatiaThe briefing
Storylines
- Portugal have won five of the last six competitive meetings with Croatia; a 2024 Nations League draw is the outlier.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has scored at a record sixth different World Cup but has never scored or assisted in a World Cup knockout match.
- Luka Modrić, 40, set up Croatia's winner against Ghana to become the oldest player to register a World Cup assist.
- Both sides advanced as group runners-up — Portugal behind Colombia in K, Croatia behind England in L.
The coaches
Roberto Martínez Portugal
The former Belgium boss, in charge since 2023, plays a possession-based 4-2-3-1 built to feed a rotating front four.
Zlatko Dalić Croatia
The 2018 finalist coach leans on a compact block, set-piece threat and Modrić's control to grind out knockout ties.
Availability
| João Neves | Available — expected back in the starting midfield after a substitute appearance against Colombia | Sports Mole preview (Adeyeye Oluwapelumi) · 2026-06-30 |
| Squad | Available — Portugal emerged from the Colombia game with no fresh injury concerns | Sports Mole preview (Adeyeye Oluwapelumi) · 2026-06-30 |
| Joško Gvardiol | Available — expected to return at left-back after being rested against Ghana | Sports Mole preview (Adeyeye Oluwapelumi) · 2026-06-30 |
| Squad | Available — Croatia also came through the Ghana win without fresh injuries | Sports Mole preview (Adeyeye Oluwapelumi) · 2026-06-30 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English (free over the air, or stream on Fox One) and Telemundo in Spanish (stream on Peacock); the free Tubi simulcast carries Telemundo's Spanish feed. (NBC News / FOX Sports World Cup TV schedule, as of 2026-07-01)
Weather: Hot and humid at the open-air Toronto Stadium — a high near 35°C under an Environment Canada heat warning, with a passing afternoon shower possible. (Environment Canada forecast / heat warning (via CBC News and Global News), as of 2026-07-01)
Referee: Espen Eskås (Norway). Appointment matched by venue and kickoff; not yet corroborated on ESPN's match page as of this write. (FIFA Round-of-32 appointment tracker, matched by venue and kickoff time, as of 2026-07-01)
Venue: Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), Toronto, Canada — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
