Sports · World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
Argentinavs
Cabo Verde
Friday, July 3, 2026 · 6:00 p.m. ET · Miami Stadium (Hard Rock Stadium), Miami Gardens, FL
Watch: FOX · Telemundo
My pick: Argentina advance · locked 2026-07-02 04:20 UTCPrediction
Argentina to advance, comfortably. The defending champions won all three group games — one of only three sides to do so — and Lionel Messi has scored six of their eight goals, a streak of scoring in seven straight World Cup matches. Cabo Verde's fairytale run to a first-ever knockout stage was built on defensive resilience: draws with Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, two clean sheets, and Vozinha in inspired form. The Blue Sharks will sit deep and make Argentina wait, but the champions' 10-match winning run in knockout football and the sheer depth behind Messi should tell well before penalties threaten. 2-0 Argentina.
The case for Argentina
87% to winArgentina haven't lost a knockout tie since the 2019 Copa América and arrive with Messi, rested against Jordan, restored to the XI alongside Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul. Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez and Enzo Fernández give Scaloni match-winners in every line, and Cabo Verde have scored just twice in three games — one goal may be enough, and Argentina rarely stop at one against deep blocks they can probe patiently.
The case for Cabo Verde
4% to winCabo Verde have already manacled Spain — the tournament's best side on paper — and pegged back Uruguay from behind. Bubista's block concedes almost nothing central, Vozinha is the knockout stage's feel-good story in goal, and Kevin Lenini screens the back four again after shaking off an injury scare. Keep it goalless for an hour in the Miami heat and the pressure flips entirely onto the champions; one set piece or Ryan Mendes counter could write the greatest upset in World Cup history.
Both cases written 2026-07-02, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 9% belongs to the draw.
Argentina 4-4-24-1-4-1 Cabo VerdeThe briefing
Storylines
- The defending champions meet the tournament's smallest-ever nation by population — Cabo Verde, the only one of the four debutants to reach the knockouts.
- Messi, 39, has scored in seven consecutive World Cup matches and owns six of Argentina's eight goals; he is level with Kylian Mbappé in the Golden Boot race.
- Argentina carry winning streaks of 10 in all competitions and 10 in tournament knockout football into the tie.
- The winner faces Australia or Egypt in the round of 16; a Miami evening thunderstorm could interrupt play at the open-air Hard Rock Stadium.
The coaches
Lionel Scaloni Argentina
The 2022 World Cup winner keeps Argentina ruthless and settled, rotating around a fixed spine of Messi, Fernández and the Martínezes.
Pedro "Bubista" Brito Cabo Verde
Has drilled Cabo Verde into a compact, fearless block that has already frustrated Spain and Uruguay on the sport's biggest stage.
Availability
| Lionel Messi | Available — rested (benched) for the Jordan game and returns to the XI | Sports Mole preview (Seye Omidiora, 1 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-01 |
| Cristian Romero | Available — the knee knock from the Austria game is reportedly fine; expected to return in place of Otamendi | Sports Mole preview (Seye Omidiora, 1 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-01 |
| Telmo Arcanjo | Out — the muscle injury picked up before the final group fixture has kept him out since | Sports Mole preview (Seye Omidiora, 1 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-01 |
| Jamiro Monteiro / Kevin Lenini | Available — both shook off pre-matchday-three knocks and have featured since; Lenini anchors the midfield | Sports Mole preview (Seye Omidiora, 1 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-01 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English (free over the air, or stream on Fox One, with a FOX 4K feed) and Telemundo in Spanish (stream on Peacock); the free Tubi simulcast carries Telemundo's Spanish feed. (ESPN how-to-watch / Betfred TV listings (2 Jul 2026), as of 2026-07-02)
Weather: Hot, steamy Miami evening at the open-air Hard Rock Stadium — near 80°F at kickoff with showers and possibly a thunderstorm around before 8pm. (NWS Miami point forecast, as of 2026-07-02)
Venue: Miami Stadium (Hard Rock Stadium), Miami Gardens, FL, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
