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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 64
Andrey Rublev vs 
Daniel Merida
Round of 64
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Andrey Rublev to advance · locked 2026-08-31 20:50 UTCPrediction
Rublev, but he arrives having spent 3 hours 42 minutes surviving a lucky loser. He was two sets down to Otto Virtanen, passed up seven break points and three set points in a second set he lost 7-0 in the tiebreak, saved a match point at 6-5 in the fifth and won the deciding tiebreak 10-5 — his third career comeback from two sets down, and 24 break points to convert seven. Merida had a quieter afternoon: 6-4 6-4 6-2 over Marton Fucsovics in 1 hour 44 minutes, six breaks from fifteen chances, 22 unforced errors to Fucsovics's 42. That is a two-hour difference in the legs, and the 21-year-old Spaniard is ranked No. 39 to Rublev's 24, having gone 29–14 this season. But 12–10 on hard courts is a thin body of evidence next to Rublev's 289–173, and Rublev has reached the third round or better in eight of his last nine US Opens. First meeting.
The case for Andrey Rublev
66% to winRublev has been in this position repeatedly and keeps coming out of it: 12–10 in five-set matches at majors, three comebacks from two sets down, and eight third rounds or better in his last nine visits to New York. His 289–173 on hard courts is more than twenty times Merida's volume on the surface, and the Spaniard's 12–10 hard-court record is the least convincing number either player brings. Twenty aces and 82% of first-serve points won says the serve held up even when the rest didn't.
The case for Daniel Merida
34% to winMerida is fresh and Rublev is not — 1 hour 44 minutes against 3 hours 42, and a first-round opponent dispatched without complication. At No. 39 he is only fifteen places behind Rublev on the ranking, is 29–14 for the season, and is playing his first US Open with nothing expected of him. Rublev's opener showed a player who needed 24 break points to take seven and made 27 unforced errors in a match he nearly lost.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-08-31.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
The briefing
Storylines
- Rublev came from two sets down to beat lucky loser Otto Virtanen 6-7(5) 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2 7-6(5) in 3 hours 42 minutes — his third such comeback.
- He saved a match point at 6-5 in the fifth and won the deciding tiebreak 10-5.
- Merida beat Marton Fucsovics 6-4 6-4 6-2 in 1 hour 44 minutes, with 22 unforced errors to Fucsovics's 42.
- It is Merida's first US Open; Rublev has reached the third round or better in eight of his last nine.
- Career hard-court records: Rublev 289–173, Merida 12–10.
Head to head
They have never met at tour level.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Watch: Second-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-08-31)
Weather: Rain is the story of the week's opening, and it is forecast to get worse before it clears. Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight — 72% under a low near 72°F — and Tuesday is the worst day on the board: near 81°F with storms likely through the day, 67%, and again after dark at 64%. Wednesday is the break in it, near 76°F on a 26% chance of showers, with a slight chance of storms returning overnight; Thursday is warm and unsettled again, near 84°F on 53%. Friday is the first clean day of the fortnight — near 82°F and mostly sunny after an early 15%. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-08-31)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 is where a Grand Slam draw stops being a lottery and becomes a tournament. Sixty-four men's matches opened the bracket; thirty-two across Wednesday and Thursday halve what is left, and everyone still here has already won on these courts. Seeds who came through the first round now meet opponents carrying form rather than a ranking.
Round of 128
Round of 32