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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 64
Andrey Rublev vs Daniel Merida — 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4
 Daniel Merida✓ | 63 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Andrey Rublev | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Final · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · Round of 64
Result
Neither man was broken in the first set and Rublev, the 23rd seed, took control of the tiebreak from 3-3 to win it 7-3. Then it turned. Merida broke twice at the start of the second to lead 4-0 and took it 6-2; in the third, level at 3-3, he broke in the seventh game and served out 6-4. Rublev broke for 2-0 in the fourth and immediately gave it straight back, and from 2-2 Merida controlled the rest, breaking again for 5-3 and closing after 2hr 46min on Court 11. Merida, 21 and ranked 39th after starting the year at 163, was playing the US Open main draw for the first time; beating Rublev, who had needed five sets to get past Otto Virtanen, is the biggest win of his career and takes him to a Grand Slam third round for the first time, against Alex Michelsen. He won 67% of points on serve and conceded that one break all afternoon. Rublev, competing here as a neutral athlete, failed to reach the third round in New York for the first time since 2018.
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 is where a Grand Slam draw stops being a lottery and becomes a tournament. Sixty-four men's matches opened the bracket; thirty-two across Wednesday and Thursday halve what is left, and everyone still here has already won on these courts. Seeds who came through the first round now meet opponents carrying form rather than a ranking.
Daniel Merida✓Round of 128
Round of 64
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Rublev, but he arrives having spent 3 hours 42 minutes surviving a lucky loser. He was two sets down to Otto Virtanen, passed up seven break points and three set points in a second set he lost 7-0 in the tiebreak, saved a match point at 6-5 in the fifth and won the deciding tiebreak 10-5 — his third career comeback from two sets down, and 24 break points to convert seven. Merida had a quieter afternoon: 6-4 6-4 6-2 over Marton Fucsovics in 1 hour 44 minutes, six breaks from fifteen chances, 22 unforced errors to Fucsovics's 42. That is a two-hour difference in the legs, and the 21-year-old Spaniard is ranked No. 39 to Rublev's 24, having gone 29–14 this season. But 12–10 on hard courts is a thin body of evidence next to Rublev's 289–173, and Rublev has reached the third round or better in eight of his last nine US Opens. First meeting.
The case for Andrey Rublev
66% to winRublev has been in this position repeatedly and keeps coming out of it: 12–10 in five-set matches at majors, three comebacks from two sets down, and eight third rounds or better in his last nine visits to New York. His 289–173 on hard courts is more than twenty times Merida's volume on the surface, and the Spaniard's 12–10 hard-court record is the least convincing number either player brings. Twenty aces and 82% of first-serve points won says the serve held up even when the rest didn't.
The case for Daniel Merida
34% to winMerida is fresh and Rublev is not — 1 hour 44 minutes against 3 hours 42, and a first-round opponent dispatched without complication. At No. 39 he is only fifteen places behind Rublev on the ranking, is 29–14 for the season, and is playing his first US Open with nothing expected of him. Rublev's opener showed a player who needed 24 break points to take seven and made 27 unforced errors in a match he nearly lost.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Andrey Rublev to advance ✗ WRONG
“Two decades of hard-court evidence against twenty-two matches, even allowing for two hours more in the legs.”
Locked 2026-08-31 20:50 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Storylines
- Rublev came from two sets down to beat lucky loser Otto Virtanen 6-7(5) 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2 7-6(5) in 3 hours 42 minutes — his third such comeback.
- He saved a match point at 6-5 in the fifth and won the deciding tiebreak 10-5.
- Merida beat Marton Fucsovics 6-4 6-4 6-2 in 1 hour 44 minutes, with 22 unforced errors to Fucsovics's 42.
- It is Merida's first US Open; Rublev has reached the third round or better in eight of his last nine.
- Career hard-court records: Rublev 289–173, Merida 12–10.
Head to head
They have never met at tour level.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Court & schedule: Court 11, Wednesday 2 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.