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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Alex Michelsen vs 
Daniel Merida
Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Alex Michelsen to advance · locked 2026-09-02 23:55 UTCPrediction
The tightest match in the men's third round, between two players who have never been this far here and who have split their two meetings this year. Michelsen, 22 and ranked 46th, has not dropped a set: 6-4 6-1 6-0 over Federico Cina, then 6-3 6-4 6-4 over Brandon Nakashima, who had himself conceded three games in the first round. Merida, 21 and ranked 39th, is playing his first US Open at all and has just produced the biggest win of his career, coming from a set down to beat the 23rd seed Andrey Rublev 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4 and conceding one break of serve all afternoon. He started the year ranked 163rd. Their two meetings are eight months and a continent apart — Michelsen 6-3 6-4 in the Indian Wells first round in March, Merida 6-4 6-7(4) 6-1 in Toronto in August — and the more recent one belongs to Merida. What separates them is sample size: Michelsen is 73-54 on hard courts for his career, Merida 13-10. On the evidence of the last month, that gap is closing fast.
The case for Alex Michelsen
52% to winMichelsen has not lost a set and has beaten the better opponent: Nakashima had dropped three games in his own first round and won four in the whole match against Michelsen. He is 73-54 on hard courts against Merida's 13-10, and he won their first meeting this year in straight sets. He is also the taller man and the bigger server, and the third round of a major is the point at which a first-time main-draw player usually finds out what one costs.
The case for Daniel Merida
48% to winMerida has just beaten a top-25 seed from a set down, in four sets, having gone from 163rd in the world to 39th inside eight months — a rate of improvement nobody else in this section can match. He beat Michelsen in Toronto three weeks ago. He is 30-14 for the season against Michelsen's 24-18, and he has conceded a single break of serve across two matches in New York.
Both cases written 2026-09-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Alex MichelsenDaniel MeridaPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
The briefing
Storylines
- Neither man has reached a Grand Slam fourth round; Merida is playing his first US Open.
- Michelsen has not dropped a set, beating Federico Cina and then Brandon Nakashima in straights.
- Merida beat the 23rd seed Andrey Rublev 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4, conceding one break of serve.
- Merida began the season ranked 163rd and is 39th now.
- They split two hard-court meetings this year, Merida taking the more recent in Toronto in August.
Head to head
One each, both this year and both on hard courts: Michelsen 6-3 6-4 in the Indian Wells first round in March, Merida 6-4 6-7(4) 6-1 in the Canadian Masters second round in August.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Wednesday night is wet: showers and thunderstorms likely at 64% on a low near 72°F, which is the night session's problem and the roofs' answer. Thursday stays unsettled — 83°F, showers and thunderstorms likely, again at 64% — and eases to 33% overnight. Friday improves without quite clearing: mostly sunny and 82°F, with a slight shower chance at 23%. Saturday is the clean day, sunny and 78°F on 2%, and Sunday is sunny at 74°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-02)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
