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Sports · US Open 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 16
Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova — 5-7 6-4 6-3
| Mirra Andreeva✓ | 5 | 6 | 6 |
 Anastasia Potapova | 7 | 4 | 3 |
Final · Monday, September 7, 2026 · Round of 16
Result
Andreeva made forty-eight unforced errors to twenty-three winners and won anyway. Neither player led by more than two games until the last one. Potapova took the first set when Andreeva was broken to love serving at 5-6 — two double faults and two errors in four points. The second ran the same shape in reverse: Potapova broken first, breaking back for 2-2, then missing a break point for 4-2 and double-faulting the break straight back. Three consecutive breaks opened the third, and it settled when Andreeva saved two break points at 1-2 and held for 3-1. Serving at 3-5 to stay in the match, Potapova fell chasing a forehand and hyperextended her left knee. Andreeva crossed the net, helped her to her chair and called for ice; Potapova came back with the knee strapped and did not win another point. Ten breaks in twenty-one service games, and ninety-nine points to ninety-three. "She's a warrior," Andreeva said. "I think she's even a better fighter than me." It is her first quarter-final here and her fifth at a major; she won Roland Garros in June. Potapova, seeded twenty-fourth and playing for Austria since January, matched her best major run and has still never reached a quarter-final.
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 16 is the fourth round, and the point at which a Grand Slam stops being a draw and becomes a tournament you can hold in your head: eight matches, played across Sunday and Monday, and the eight who come through are the quarter-finalists. Everyone still here has won three matches on these courts, so the seedings have stopped being a guide and the form of the fortnight has taken over.
Round of 32
What we know now
Court: Louis Armstrong Stadium
Match length: 2:27
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Andreeva leads this 3-1 and has won the last three, and the one that matters most was played on these courts: the second round here last year, 6-1 6-3, at a tournament neither of them had ever got out of. Both have now. Potapova's only win in the series came at Monastir in October 2022, Andreeva's first tour-level main draw, when she was fifteen. Hard-court Elo puts this at about 74-26, the widest gap left in the women's fourth round, and the season records point the same way: 43-14 against 29-20. Andreeva won the French Open in June, the first major of her career, and has come through three rounds here without dropping a set — Tjen, then Lys for two games, then a tiebreak she led 4-0, lost five of the next six points in, and closed out anyway. The case for Potapova is form against ratings, and it is stronger than the numbers make it look. She was ranked 97th in April and had not won back-to-back matches at six consecutive tournaments before this fortnight; this afternoon she beat the tenth seed for the loss of seven games, with seventeen unforced errors against Anisimova's forty-six, and saved six break points in her opening service game to set the tone. Their most recent meeting was the Linz final in April, and Potapova led that by a set before losing 1-6 6-4 6-3 — the closest anyone has come to Andreeva in this series since 2022. The gap is real. I do not think it is as wide as 74-26, and I have shaded it accordingly.
The case for Mirra Andreeva
73% to winAndreeva has won the last three meetings, including this one's nearest precedent — the second round of this tournament last year, 6-1 6-3. She is 43-14 for the season against 29-20, she won the French Open in June, and she has not dropped a set here: Tjen, then Lys for two games, then Bartunkova. Against Bartunkova she won 19 of 22 points at the net and 62% behind her second serve against 32%, which is the profile of a player who is comfortable ending points from anywhere on the court. Hard-court Elo has her 184 points clear, the biggest margin in the round, and at 19 she has already reached the fourth round or better at all four majors.
The case for Anastasia Potapova
27% to winPotapova has just played the best match of her season. She beat the tenth seed 6-2 7-5 in an hour and thirty-nine minutes with seventeen unforced errors, saved six break points in her opening service game, and broke back immediately each of the two times Anisimova led in the second set. It is her third top-ten win of the year and the first on a hard court. She was 97th in April, so the ranking gap of twenty places understates how far she has climbed in five months rather than overstating it. She has also taken a set off Andreeva more recently than anyone — the Linz final in April, which she led before losing in three.
Both cases written 2026-09-05, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Mirra Andreeva to advance ✓ RIGHT
“3-1 in the series with the last three, including 6-1 6-3 in the second round here last year; hard-court Elo has it 74-26 and the season records agree. Shaded a point toward Potapova, who has just played her best match of the year and took a set off Andreeva in April.”
Locked 2026-09-05 19:30 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Player vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-05.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-05.
Storylines
- Andreeva leads the head-to-head 3-1 and has won the last three; Potapova's only win came at Monastir in October 2022, Andreeva's first tour-level main draw, aged fifteen.
- They met in the second round of this tournament last year, Andreeva winning 6-1 6-3.
- Both players reached a first US Open fourth round today — Andreeva's win over Bartunkova completed the set of fourth rounds at all four majors.
- Potapova was ranked 97th in April; she has since beaten Gauff, Rybakina and now Anisimova, the last of them her first top-ten win on a hard court.
- Their most recent meeting was the Linz final in April, which Potapova led by a set before losing 1-6 6-4 6-3.
Head to head
Four meetings, Andreeva leading 3-1. She has won the last three — Wimbledon in 2023, the second round of this tournament last year 6-1 6-3, and the Linz final in April 1-6 6-4 6-3. Potapova's win came at Monastir in October 2022, Andreeva's first tour-level main draw.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-05.
Court & schedule: Louis Armstrong Stadium, Monday 7 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-07)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.