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Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Marie Bouzková vs Liudmila Samsonova — 4-6 7-6(3) 6-4
 Marie Bouzková✓ | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 6 | 63 | 4 |
Final · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Bouzková absorbed the power and outlasted it, beating Samsonova 4-6 7-6(3) 6-4 across three and a half hours on Court 12. The story was the break points: Samsonova earned 20 of them and converted just three, and the 21st seed's steadier second set — a 7-3 tiebreak — swung a match she edged 125 points to 122.
Marie BouzkováStats: Official wimbledon.com match statistics (IBM) · as of 2026-07-09
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
Hammer against wall, and the wall stood — barely. Marie Bouzková, the 21st seed, beat big-hitting Liudmila Samsonova 4-6 7-6(3) 6-4 across three and a half hours on Court 12, a match that turned on Samsonova's profligacy: 20 break points earned, only three taken. Bouzková's second-set tiebreak steadied it, and she edged the points 125-122. A 2022 quarter-finalist here, she returns to the last 16 — where the biggest serve in the women's draw waits, 25th seed Elise Mertens having just removed second seed Elena Rybakina.
Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Samsonova, in a pure clash of styles. She hits through courts like this — 30 winners and 80% first-serve points won in the upset of No. 15 seed Shnaider — and her flat first strike is the shot Bouzková's counterpunching has to absorb over and over. The case for the Czech is that absorbing is exactly what she does best: a 12-unforced-error, 4-double-fault second round, a 2022 quarterfinal run on these lawns, and a history of turning big hitters' pace against them. They've met several times on tour without settling the argument; on grass, the server usually wins it. Samsonova in three, with at least one set decided by a single break.
The case for Marie Bouzková
44% to winBouzková's whole game is designed to beat players like Samsonova: absorb, extend, redirect, and wait for the error avalanche (Samsonova hit 41 unforced alongside those 30 winners). The No. 21 seed reached the quarterfinals here in 2022, and her 12-error second round was the tidiest tennis in this section.
The case for Liudmila Samsonova
56% to winSamsonova just played her most complete match of the season — 30 winners against the No. 15 seed — and her first tour title came on grass. When her serve lands, there is no defensive answer to her pace on this surface, and Bouzková offers no pace of her own to hurt her with.
Both cases written 2026-07-02, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Liudmila Samsonova to advance ✗ WRONG
“On grass the hammer usually beats the wall, and her serve is the match's only free-point source.”
Locked 2026-07-02 17:30 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Marie BouzkováLiudmila SamsonovaPlayer vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-09.
Storylines
- Hammer versus wall: Samsonova's 30-winner upset of Shnaider against Bouzková's 12-unforced-error masterclass — the section's purest style clash.
- Bouzková's best Grand Slam run came here (the 2022 quarterfinals); Samsonova's first title came on grass in Berlin in 2021.
- The pair have met several times since 2019 without a grass meeting — the surface finally referees the argument.
Head to head
They have met at least four times since 2019 — most recently Adelaide 2025 — but never on grass.
Source: TennisTemple head-to-head · as of 2026-07-02.
Court & schedule: Court 12 (TennisTemple match stats and ESPN scoreboard, as of 2026-07-04)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.