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Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens — 7-6(4) 6-1
 Elise Mertens✓ | 7 | 6 |
 Elena Rybakina | 64 | 1 |
Final · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Mertens produced the upset of the women's day, beating second seed Rybakina 7-6(4) 6-1 on No. 1 Court in 95 minutes. The 2022 champion never found her first serve — in on just 43% — and converted only two of ten break points; Mertens took the opening tiebreak, then broke away for a 6-1 second set, winning 75 points to 60 to reach the last 16.
Elena RybakinaStats: Official wimbledon.com match statistics (IBM) · as of 2026-07-09
Rows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The head-to-head loomed over this one — Rybakina had won seven of eight, six straight — and Mertens finally rewrote it, on the biggest stage yet. The 25th seed beat second seed Elena Rybakina 7-6(4) 6-1 on No. 1 Court, exposing a champion who never found her first serve (in on just 43%) and could take only two of ten break points. Once Mertens edged the first-set tiebreak, the second was a rout. She reaches the last 16 for the loss of a tense opening set and draws Marie Bouzková, a three-hour survivor over Liudmila Samsonova — a winnable quarter suddenly open.
Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Rybakina, and comfortably. The 2022 champion and second seed needed just 69 minutes to sweep past Caty McNally, winning 80 percent of her first-serve points, and she owns this match-up: a 7-1 head-to-head with six straight wins, the latest a 6-1 6-3 dismissal at this year's Australian Open. Elise Mertens is a fine, tidy competitor — a top-25 seed who beats the players she should — but on grass, against arguably the biggest serve and cleanest ball-striking in the women's game, she has no obvious way to hurt Rybakina. The Kazakh's serve alone shortens the match into a handful of return games, and on this surface, in this form, she is a level above. A straight-sets win is the likeliest outcome.
The case for Elena Rybakina
86% to winRybakina is the 2022 Wimbledon champion and, on grass, close to unplayable at her best: a serve that produces aces and free holds at will, and flat groundstrokes that skid through the low bounce. She dismantled McNally in 69 minutes, has won six in a row against Mertens, and is seeded No. 2 for a reason. On this surface, against this opponent, she is a heavy favourite.
The case for Elise Mertens
14% to winMertens' case is craft and consistency: a former top-tenner and a doubles No. 1 with the return, movement and tactical nous to make big hitters play an extra ball. She beat Timofeeva from a set down to get here and rarely donates free points. If Rybakina's serve dips even slightly and the match turns physical, Mertens has the game to hang and pounce.
Both cases written 2026-07-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Elena Rybakina to advance ✗ WRONG
“A 7-1 head-to-head, the 2022 champion in ruthless form, against a woman she has beaten six straight times.”
Locked 2026-07-03 13:30 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Elena RybakinaElise MertensPlayer vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-09.
Storylines
- Rybakina, the 2022 champion, has won six straight over Mertens and leads the head-to-head 7-1.
- She needed only 69 minutes to reach this round, winning 80 percent of her first-serve points.
- Mertens, the 25th seed, must find a way to hurt the biggest serve in the women's draw.
Head to head
Rybakina dominates the series 7-1, winning the last six meetings, most recently 6-1 6-3 at the 2026 Australian Open.
Source: WTA head-to-head · as of 2026-07-03.
Court & schedule: No. 1 Court (TennisTemple match stats and ESPN scoreboard, as of 2026-07-04)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.