Sports · Wimbledon 2026 · Women's Singles · Round of 32
Elena Rybakinavs
Elise Mertens
Saturday, July 4, 2026 · Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN+
My pick: Elena Rybakina to advance · locked 2026-07-03 13:30 UTCPrediction
Rybakina, and comfortably. The 2022 champion and second seed needed just 69 minutes to sweep past Caty McNally, winning 80 percent of her first-serve points, and she owns this match-up: a 7-1 head-to-head with six straight wins, the latest a 6-1 6-3 dismissal at this year's Australian Open. Elise Mertens is a fine, tidy competitor — a top-25 seed who beats the players she should — but on grass, against arguably the biggest serve and cleanest ball-striking in the women's game, she has no obvious way to hurt Rybakina. The Kazakh's serve alone shortens the match into a handful of return games, and on this surface, in this form, she is a level above. A straight-sets win is the likeliest outcome.
The case for Elena Rybakina
86% to winRybakina is the 2022 Wimbledon champion and, on grass, close to unplayable at her best: a serve that produces aces and free holds at will, and flat groundstrokes that skid through the low bounce. She dismantled McNally in 69 minutes, has won six in a row against Mertens, and is seeded No. 2 for a reason. On this surface, against this opponent, she is a heavy favourite.
The case for Elise Mertens
14% to winMertens' case is craft and consistency: a former top-tenner and a doubles No. 1 with the return, movement and tactical nous to make big hitters play an extra ball. She beat Timofeeva from a set down to get here and rarely donates free points. If Rybakina's serve dips even slightly and the match turns physical, Mertens has the game to hang and pounce.
Both cases written 2026-07-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — and tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Elena RybakinaElise MertensPlayer vitals: ATP Tour player profiles and Wikipedia (career records) · as of 2026-07-01.
The briefing
Storylines
- Rybakina, the 2022 champion, has won six straight over Mertens and leads the head-to-head 7-1.
- She needed only 69 minutes to reach this round, winning 80 percent of her first-serve points.
- Mertens, the 25th seed, must find a way to hurt the biggest serve in the women's draw.
This fortnight’s form
Elena Rybakina
- R1def. Loïs Boisson6-4 1-6 6-3
- R2def. Caty McNally6-1 6-2
Elise Mertens
- R1def. Laura Siegemund6-2 6-4
- R2def. Maria Timofeeva (Q)2-6 6-3 6-0
Each player’s path into this round. Source: Mungomash Wimbledon 2026 draw (this cluster's verified results), cross-checked against the published draw · as of 2026-07-03.
Head to head
Rybakina dominates the series 7-1, winning the last six meetings, most recently 6-1 6-3 at the 2026 Australian Open.
Source: WTA head-to-head · as of 2026-07-03.
Watch: US coverage runs on ESPN and ESPN2, and every court — this match included — streams on ESPN+. The exact channel and start time follow the order of play. (ESPN, as of 2026-07-03)
Court & schedule: Third-round order of play is posted the evening before; the court and start time for this match had not yet been published. (All England Club order of play (not yet released for the third round), as of 2026-07-03)
Venue: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London — grass.
