US Open 2026 pages
Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Carlos Alcaraz vs 
Yibing Wu
Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Carlos Alcaraz to advance · locked 2026-09-03 04:10 UTCPrediction
Alcaraz has won this tournament twice, in 2022 and again last year, and he is 165-46 on hard courts for his career against Wu's 45-33. The hard-court Elo tables put him 394 points clear, which is the largest gap left anywhere in the men's draw. The one thing worth watching is that he is two matches into a comeback: a right-wrist tenosynovitis in April cost him Barcelona, Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and although he came through Roman Safiullin in straight sets on Monday, he dropped the opening set to Jaime Faria on Wednesday before winning eight games in a row. Wu is 26, ranked 113th, and in the third round here for the first time since 2022 — a run built on not losing serve: James Duckworth had no break point against him at all on Wednesday, and Adam Walton got two sets to a tiebreak in the first round. The two have met once, in the Shanghai round of 32 in October 2024, and Alcaraz won 7-6(5) 6-3, which is closer than the ranking gap suggested then and is the only encouragement available now. Wu also lost 6-3 7-5 to Faria in Cincinnati three weeks ago, which is not the omen he wants.
The case for Carlos Alcaraz
91% to winAlcaraz is the two-time champion, the defending champion, and has seven majors at 23. He has won 165 hard-court matches to Wu's 45 and is nearly 400 points clear on hard-court Elo — the widest gap left in this draw. He answered the only real question on Wednesday, dropping a set and then conceding five games in three. There is no plausible route here that does not involve Alcaraz's wrist rather than Wu's tennis.
The case for Yibing Wu
9% to winWu has not been broken often and has not been broken at all in a full match this week, which is the single most useful thing to bring against a returning player still finding his timing. Alcaraz has dropped a set in each of his last two matches at this level of opposition and has played two competitive matches in four and a half months. Wu took a set to a tiebreak against him in Shanghai two years ago from a far worse position in the rankings than he occupies now.
Both cases written 2026-09-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Carlos AlcarazYibing WuPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
The briefing
Storylines
- Alcaraz is the defending champion and won this title in 2022 as well.
- This is his third match back from a right-wrist injury that cost him Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
- Wu is in the US Open third round for the first time since 2022.
- Wu did not face a single break point in beating James Duckworth on Wednesday.
- They met once before, in Shanghai in 2024, Alcaraz winning 7-6(5) 6-3.
Head to head
Alcaraz leads 1-0: 7-6(5) 6-3 in the Shanghai Masters round of 32 in October 2024, on a hard court.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Wednesday night is wet: showers and thunderstorms likely at 64% on a low near 72°F, which is the night session's problem and the roofs' answer. Thursday stays unsettled — 83°F, showers and thunderstorms likely, again at 64% — and eases to 33% overnight. Friday improves without quite clearing: mostly sunny and 82°F, with a slight shower chance at 23%. Saturday is the clean day, sunny and 78°F on 2%, and Sunday is sunny at 74°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-02)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
