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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Carlos Alcaraz vs Yibing Wu — 6-3 6-4 6-1
 Carlos Alcaraz✓ | 6 | 6 | 6 |
 Yibing Wu | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Final · Friday, September 4, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Alcaraz broke in the opening game of the match and in the opening game of the second set, and gave both back immediately; the third time he built a lead he kept it. He saved two break points at the start of the third and then took four of the last five games. It was untidy — seven breaks from fifteen chances, thirty-three unforced errors, twenty-one winners in three sets — and it extends his Grand Slam winning streak to seventeen matches, a run that takes in last year's title here and February's Australian Open. This is his first tournament since April, after a wrist injury that cost him Roland-Garros and Wimbledon. "I'm better than I thought," he said. "Physically, I thought I was going to be dead after the first match, but I'm recovering really well." Wu, ranked 113th and outside the top 400 as recently as June last year, was trying to become the first Chinese man to reach the last sixteen of a major in the professional era. Alcaraz plays Tommy Paul, who beat Alexander Bublik in five sets earlier in the day.
Carlos AlcarazRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Match length: 2:20
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Alcaraz has won this tournament twice, in 2022 and again last year, and he is 165-46 on hard courts for his career against Wu's 45-33. The hard-court Elo tables put him 394 points clear, which is the largest gap left anywhere in the men's draw. The one thing worth watching is that he is two matches into a comeback: a right-wrist tenosynovitis in April cost him Barcelona, Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and although he came through Roman Safiullin in straight sets on Monday, he dropped the opening set to Jaime Faria on Wednesday before winning eight games in a row. Wu is 26, ranked 113th, and in the third round here for the first time since 2022 — a run built on not losing serve: James Duckworth had no break point against him at all on Wednesday, and Adam Walton got two sets to a tiebreak in the first round. The two have met once, in the Shanghai round of 32 in October 2024, and Alcaraz won 7-6(5) 6-3, which is closer than the ranking gap suggested then and is the only encouragement available now. Wu also lost 6-3 7-5 to Faria in Cincinnati three weeks ago, which is not the omen he wants.
The case for Carlos Alcaraz
91% to winAlcaraz is the two-time champion, the defending champion, and has seven majors at 23. He has won 165 hard-court matches to Wu's 45 and is nearly 400 points clear on hard-court Elo — the widest gap left in this draw. He answered the only real question on Wednesday, dropping a set and then conceding five games in three. There is no plausible route here that does not involve Alcaraz's wrist rather than Wu's tennis.
The case for Yibing Wu
9% to winWu has not been broken often and has not been broken at all in a full match this week, which is the single most useful thing to bring against a returning player still finding his timing. Alcaraz has dropped a set in each of his last two matches at this level of opposition and has played two competitive matches in four and a half months. Wu took a set to a tiebreak against him in Shanghai two years ago from a far worse position in the rankings than he occupies now.
Both cases written 2026-09-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Carlos Alcaraz to advance ✓ RIGHT
“The defending champion, 394 points clear on hard-court Elo — the widest gap left in the men's draw.”
Locked 2026-09-03 04:10 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Carlos AlcarazYibing WuPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-04.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Storylines
- Alcaraz is the defending champion and won this title in 2022 as well.
- This is his third match back from a right-wrist injury that cost him Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
- Wu is in the US Open third round for the first time since 2022.
- Wu did not face a single break point in beating James Duckworth on Wednesday.
- They met once before, in Shanghai in 2024, Alcaraz winning 7-6(5) 6-3.
Head to head
Alcaraz leads 1-0: 7-6(5) 6-3 in the Shanghai Masters round of 32 in October 2024, on a hard court.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Court & schedule: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Friday 4 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-03)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.