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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 64
Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino — 6-3 6-1 6-1
 Alexander Bublik✓ | 6 | 6 | 6 |
 Adrian Mannarino | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Final · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · Round of 64
Result
Eighty minutes, and Adrian Mannarino won six games. Alexander Bublik served 16 aces to the Frenchman's one and won 91% of the points behind his first serve, dropping four points on serve across the whole first set and two across the whole third. The 15th seed was not clinical early — 0-40 in the second game came to nothing and he finished the opener 1 of 5 on break points, the single break in the fourth game enough — but from the start of the second he broke in the first, third and seventh games, taking all three chances he saw. Mannarino's only break point of the match came at 1-4 in that set and went unconverted; from 1-1 in the third he won one more game, ending with six winners against 29 unforced errors. The 38-year-old had reached this round the hard way, from two sets down over two days and 3hr 47min against Thiago Agustin Tirante. Bublik, whose best run in New York is last year's fourth round, now leads their series 2-1 and waits on Dino Prizmic against Tommy Paul.
Alexander BublikRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 64 is where a Grand Slam draw stops being a lottery and becomes a tournament. Sixty-four men's matches opened the bracket; thirty-two across Wednesday and Thursday halve what is left, and everyone still here has already won on these courts. Seeds who came through the first round now meet opponents carrying form rather than a ranking.
Round of 128
Round of 64
What we know now
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
Bublik, but the head-to-head says do not write Mannarino off, and neither does what Mannarino just did. The 38-year-old lost the first two sets to Thiago Agustin Tirante on Court 6, won the next two, was serving at 5-2 in the fifth when rain ended Sunday, came back on Monday and finished the job — three hours 47 minutes across two days, 21 points won from 28 trips to the net, 148 points to 139. Bublik's own opener was faster and louder: 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-1 past J.J. Wolf on Armstrong in 2 hours 12 minutes, eighteen aces, ten double faults, seven of eight break points taken. That is the whole matchup — the 15th seed's serve and his willingness to lose a set doing something strange, against a left-hander who returns everything and is 276–279 on hard courts for a reason. The ratings make it roughly 76–24 and the season records agree, Bublik 26–18 against Mannarino's 12–24. But they are 1–1, and Mannarino won the most recent, 6-3 6-2 in Beijing last September.
The case for Alexander Bublik
76% to winBublik is the 15th seed, No. 16 in the world, fifty-one places above his opponent and fourteen years his junior, and he reached the fourth round here last year. He hit eighteen aces in the first round and converted seven of the eight break points he saw, which is a conversion rate that ends matches quickly. Against a left-hander who lives on rhythm and low balls, the one player on court who can simply refuse to give any rhythm at all is the Kazakh.
The case for Adrian Mannarino
24% to winMannarino is 1–1 with him and holds the most recent meeting, 6-3 6-2 in Beijing in September 2025. He has just come back from two sets down in a match that ran across two days and 3 hours 47 minutes, so the legs and the will are both present. His game — flat, early, left-handed, relentlessly deep — is the exact opposite of what Bublik's variety is designed to beat, and Bublik's ten double faults against Wolf are the tell: he gives away free points, and Mannarino's whole method is to make an opponent play one more ball. At 38 he has 276 tour-level hard-court wins to Bublik's 150.
Both cases written 2026-08-31, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Alexander Bublik to advance ✓ RIGHT
“Fifty-one ranking places, the bigger serve and the fresher legs, against a 38-year-old who has just played nearly four hours across two days.”
Locked 2026-08-31 17:45 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Alexander BublikAdrian MannarinoPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Storylines
- Mannarino came from two sets down and across two days — rain suspended the match at 5-2 in the fifth on Sunday night — for his second Grand Slam win of the year.
- The head-to-head is 1–1, and Mannarino holds the most recent: 6-3 6-2 at Beijing in September 2025. Bublik won their first meeting, Doha in January 2020, 6-3 6-4.
- Bublik opened with eighteen aces and ten double faults against J.J. Wolf, converting seven of eight break points.
- Fourteen years separate them: Bublik is 29, Mannarino 38 and a professional since 2004.
- Both reached the fourth round here in 2025, which is each man's best US Open result.
Head to head
One apiece, and Mannarino has the more recent: 6-3 6-2 in the second round at Beijing in September 2025. Bublik won their only other meeting, 6-3 6-4 in the second round at Doha in January 2020. Both were on hard courts.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-08-31.
Court & schedule: Court 11, Wednesday 2 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.