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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Alexander Bublik vs 
Tommy Paul
Round of 32
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
My pick: Tommy Paul to advance · locked 2026-09-03 03:40 UTCPrediction
They played this exact match a year ago — same tournament, same round — and Bublik won it 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1 over five sets and two tiebreaks he lost. That is the most recent of six meetings, and Paul leads the series 4-2. The Elo tables put Paul 33 points ahead on hard courts, which is about as close as a seeding gap of five places ever gets. The difference this week is what is left in the legs: Bublik has spent 1hr 20min beating Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-1 6-1, with sixteen aces and 91% of his first-serve points won, on top of a four-set opener against J.J. Wolf; Paul has played 2hr 41min and then 3hr 4min, the second of them against Dino Prizmic, who took a set off him and gave him no break chance in it. Paul is the steadier player and the one with the clearer ambition — the US Open is the only major where he has never reached a quarter-final, and he said before the tournament that two fourth rounds satisfied nobody on his team. Bublik is the one who can play an unplayable hour. Paul, narrowly, and only because a five-set rematch favours the man who has been the more consistent of the two all season.
The case for Alexander Bublik
45% to winBublik has won the only meeting that happened at this tournament, in this round, last year, over five sets — and he did it after losing two tiebreaks, which is the version of him that used to fold. He has been on court for 80 minutes in his last match against Paul's three hours, he served sixteen aces and won 91% of his first-serve points doing it, and his best US Open run is more recent than Paul's. On a fast night with the serve working, nobody in this quarter wants him.
The case for Tommy Paul
55% to winPaul leads 4-2 and has won on hard, grass and clay in that series; he is 37-17 for the season against Bublik's 27-18 and 193-115 on hard courts against 151-137. He has reached at least four finals this year, a mark only Sinner has also managed, and he saved a match point to beat the world No. 1 in Cincinnati three weeks ago. He has also been explicit about wanting more from this tournament than the two fourth rounds he has. Consistency beats volatility over five sets more often than not.
Both cases written 2026-09-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
Tale of the tape
Alexander BublikTommy PaulPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-02.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
The briefing
Storylines
- They met in this same round at this same tournament last year; Bublik won in five sets.
- Paul leads the series 4-2 across hard, grass and clay.
- Bublik beat Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-1 6-1 in 80 minutes, winning 91% of his first-serve points.
- Paul has spent nearly six hours on court in two rounds.
- The US Open is the only major at which Paul has never reached a quarter-final.
Head to head
Paul leads 4-2, but Bublik won the most recent meeting — the US Open third round in 2025, 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1. Paul won in Miami in March 2025 (5-7 7-5 6-4), at Wimbledon in 2024 (6-3 6-4 6-2), in Rotterdam in 2021 (6-7(5) 6-3 6-1) and in Hamburg qualifying in 2020; Bublik's other win came in Queen's Club qualifying in 2019.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Watch: Third-round coverage runs across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with ESPN Deportes in Spanish — and every court streams in the ESPN app, which is where a match away from the two show courts will live. (ESPN press-room release and listings, as of 2026-08-27)
Court & schedule: Not yet assigned. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before, and this match has not reached the board yet. (Official US Open order-of-play release cadence, as of 2026-09-02)
Weather: Wednesday night is wet: showers and thunderstorms likely at 64% on a low near 72°F, which is the night session's problem and the roofs' answer. Thursday stays unsettled — 83°F, showers and thunderstorms likely, again at 64% — and eases to 33% overnight. Friday improves without quite clearing: mostly sunny and 82°F, with a slight shower chance at 23%. Saturday is the clean day, sunny and 78°F on 2%, and Sunday is sunny at 74°F. Ashe and Armstrong close their roofs and play on; everything else waits. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-02)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
