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Sports · US Open 2026 · Men's Singles · Round of 32
Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — 6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3
 Tommy Paul✓ | 6 | 3 | 64 | 6 | 6 |
 Alexander Bublik | 4 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
Final · Friday, September 4, 2026 · Round of 32
Result
Paul took the only break point of the first set, at 4-4, and Bublik returned the compliment in the second. The third went to a tiebreak the 15th seed led 3-0 and won 7-4, and at two sets to one down Paul went to the bathroom and, by his own account, swore at himself. "I didn't do anything to the walls," he said afterwards. "I just came out and was trying to bring a different kind of intensity." He broke in the first game of the fourth from 0-40, twice more to take it 6-1, and twice again at the start of the fifth to lead 4-0; Bublik got one back with Paul serving for the match at 5-1 but no further. Paul finished six from eight on break points to Bublik's two from seven, with one double fault against six, and Bublik made forty-nine unforced errors. It reverses last year's third round here, which Bublik won in five sets on Arthur Ashe. "I was happy when I saw the schedule that we weren't on Ash," Paul said. "We just need to forget about last year." He plays Carlos Alcaraz next.
Alexander BublikRows the source hadn’t published are left off rather than guessed.
At this Stage
The Round of 32 is the third round, and the last one before a Grand Slam draw becomes a small tournament: sixteen men's matches across Friday and Saturday leave sixteen players standing, every one of them having won twice on these courts. This is the round where the seeding chart stops doing any work — from here on, whoever is left is who you play.
Round of 64
Round of 32
What we know now
Court: Louis Armstrong Stadium
Match length: 3:13
Watch: ESPN · ESPN2 · ABC · ESPN app
What I said beforehand
The preview, frozen before the first serve. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the pick worth anything.
They played this exact match a year ago — same tournament, same round — and Bublik won it 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1 over five sets and two tiebreaks he lost. That is the most recent of six meetings, and Paul leads the series 4-2. The Elo tables put Paul 33 points ahead on hard courts, which is about as close as a seeding gap of five places ever gets. The difference this week is what is left in the legs: Bublik has spent 1hr 20min beating Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-1 6-1, with sixteen aces and 91% of his first-serve points won, on top of a four-set opener against J.J. Wolf; Paul has played 2hr 41min and then 3hr 4min, the second of them against Dino Prizmic, who took a set off him and gave him no break chance in it. Paul is the steadier player and the one with the clearer ambition — the US Open is the only major where he has never reached a quarter-final, and he said before the tournament that two fourth rounds satisfied nobody on his team. Bublik is the one who can play an unplayable hour. Paul, narrowly, and only because a five-set rematch favours the man who has been the more consistent of the two all season.
The case for Alexander Bublik
45% to winBublik has won the only meeting that happened at this tournament, in this round, last year, over five sets — and he did it after losing two tiebreaks, which is the version of him that used to fold. He has been on court for 80 minutes in his last match against Paul's three hours, he served sixteen aces and won 91% of his first-serve points doing it, and his best US Open run is more recent than Paul's. On a fast night with the serve working, nobody in this quarter wants him.
The case for Tommy Paul
55% to winPaul leads 4-2 and has won on hard, grass and clay in that series; he is 37-17 for the season against Bublik's 27-18 and 193-115 on hard courts against 151-137. He has reached at least four finals this year, a mark only Sinner has also managed, and he saved a match point to beat the world No. 1 in Cincinnati three weeks ago. He has also been explicit about wanting more from this tournament than the two fourth rounds he has. Consistency beats volatility over five sets more often than not.
Both cases written 2026-09-03, before the first ball — frozen into the record exactly as written, whatever the result. The percentages are mine — opinions with a percent sign on. They add to 100 because tennis has no draw to hide the rounding in.
My locked pick: Tommy Paul to advance ✓ RIGHT
“4-2 up in the series and 33 points clear on hard-court Elo, against a man who beat him here a year ago.”
Locked 2026-09-03 03:40 UTC — rendered verbatim from the pick ledger; never a fresher, hedged version
Tale of the tape
Alexander BublikTommy PaulPlayer vitals: US Open official player feed (usopen.org) and Tennis Abstract career match logs · as of 2026-09-04.
Career head-to-head: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Storylines
- They met in this same round at this same tournament last year; Bublik won in five sets.
- Paul leads the series 4-2 across hard, grass and clay.
- Bublik beat Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-1 6-1 in 80 minutes, winning 91% of his first-serve points.
- Paul has spent nearly six hours on court in two rounds.
- The US Open is the only major at which Paul has never reached a quarter-final.
Head to head
Paul leads 4-2, but Bublik won the most recent meeting — the US Open third round in 2025, 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1. Paul won in Miami in March 2025 (5-7 7-5 6-4), at Wimbledon in 2024 (6-3 6-4 6-2), in Rotterdam in 2021 (6-7(5) 6-3 6-1) and in Hamburg qualifying in 2020; Bublik's other win came in Queen's Club qualifying in 2019.
Source: Tennis Abstract career match logs (tour-level) · as of 2026-09-02.
Court & schedule: Louis Armstrong Stadium, Friday 4 September. The US Open posts each day's order of play the evening before; this one is on the board. (Official US Open order of play, as of 2026-09-03)
Weather: Sunday — the men's final, and the last match of the fortnight — is 78°F with showers and thunderstorms 95% likely, the wettest day of the two weeks and the one day that cannot be pushed back. Ashe closes its roof and plays on. It clears overnight: 20% Sunday night, 20% Monday, then dry and sunny from Tuesday. (National Weather Service New York forecast, as of 2026-09-13)
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York — hard.