BrazilvsJapan

Result

Brazil were taken to the brink by a disciplined Japan before substitute Gabriel Martinelli settled it deep into stoppage time. Kaishu Sano headed the Samurai Blue in front against the run of play on 29 minutes, but Casemiro levelled with a header of his own just before the hour. Brazil dominated the ball and the shot count without finding a way through until the 90th-plus-fifth minute, when Bruno Guimarães slipped in Martinelli — on for Matheus Cunha — to win it 2-1. Japan, who pressed bravely and defended deep, can feel desperately unlucky. Brazil advance to the round of 16.

Brazil 4-3-33-4-2-1 Japan

Brazil

Japan

Casemiro56'

Kaishu Sano29'

Gabriel Martinelli90'+5'

Casemiro14'

Kaishu Sano12'

Danilo48'

Daichi Kamada45'

Junnosuke Suzuki84'

69%Possession31%

19Shots5

7On target2

1Saves4

6Corners2

625Passes completed260

92%Pass accuracy83%

12Tackles10

35Touches in box10

Substitutions

Endrickfor Lucas Paquetáat 45'

Junnosuke Suzukifor Keito Nakamuraat 66'

Gabriel Martinellifor Matheus Cunhaat 66'

Yukinari Sugawarafor Ritsu Doanat 66'

Fabinhofor Casemiroat 90'+3'

Shuto Machinofor Junya Itōat 78'

Danilo Santosfor Bruno Guimarãesat 90'+8'

Ao Tanakafor Daichi Kamadaat 78'

Koki Ogawafor Daizen Maedaat 90'+7'

At this Stage

The bracket appeared to be doing Brazil a favour — Group C's winners drawn against Group F's runners-up — and Japan spent ninety-odd minutes disputing the premise. The Samurai Blue, who had held the Netherlands 2-2 and put four past Tunisia in the group, led early at NRG Stadium, dug in at 1-1, and were within touching distance of extra time when Gabriel Martinelli settled it 2-1 deep in stoppage time. Brazil advance the way heavyweights often do at this stage, unconvincingly and without apology, into a round-of-16 meeting with Norway in East Rutherford on July 5. Japan exit having confirmed what their group stage suggested: nobody enjoys playing them.

Brazil✓2

Japan1

Jun 29 · FT

Houston Stadium

Côte d'Ivoire1

Norway✓2

Jun 30 · FT

Dallas Stadium

Brazil1

Norway✓2

Jul 5 · FT

New York/New Jersey Stadium

Round of 32

Brazil✓2

Japan1

Jun 29 · FT

Houston Stadium

Côte d'Ivoire1

Norway✓2

Jun 30 · FT

Dallas Stadium

Round of 16

Brazil1

Norway✓2

Jul 5 · FT

New York/New Jersey Stadium

What we know now

What I said beforehand

The preview, frozen at kickoff. Clearly dated, never rewritten — that's the deal that makes the predictions worth anything.

Brazil to win and reach the round of 16. Carlo Ancelotti's side topped Group C and carry a frightening attack — Vinícius Júnior has been among the tournament's best, with Matheus Cunha and the teenage Rayan around him — against a Japan team that came through second in Group F. Hajime Moriyasu's Samurai Blue press well and counter dangerously, and they pushed the Netherlands hard, so Brazil may have to ride a nervy spell. But over 90 minutes the gulf in attacking quality should tell. 2-1 Brazil.

Both cases written 2026-06-28, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 21% belongs to the draw.