Sports · World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
Brazilvs
Norway
Sunday, July 5, 2026 · 4:00 p.m. ET · New York/New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium), East Rutherford, NJ
Watch: FOX · Telemundo
My pick: Brazil advance · locked 2026-07-04 04:10 UTCPrediction
Brazil to advance, but not with clean hands. Ancelotti's side have the deeper midfield, Vinícius Júnior's isolation threat, and enough defensive recovery speed to survive Norway's direct spells. Norway's case is obvious and unpleasant: Ødegaard supplies, Haaland finishes, and Brazil have already shown they can be dragged into a tense second half. Raphinha's hamstring keeps the ceiling a little lower, but Brazil should still create the extra chance. 2-1 Brazil.
The case for Brazil
55% to winBrazil can win this through the middle before Norway's best weapon ever gets loaded. Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães and Paquetá give them more control than Côte d'Ivoire had, and Vinícius Júnior attacking space behind a high right side is a cleaner source of chances than a set-piece grind. Even without Raphinha at full tilt, Brazil have enough creators to make Norway defend for longer than they want.
The case for Norway
20% to winNorway do not need the ball to make the tie feel unsafe. Solbakken's side have Haaland, Ødegaard, Sørloth and Nusa, and their 2-1 win over Côte d'Ivoire proved they can absorb pressure and still find the decisive transition late. Brazil conceded first against Japan; do that again and the MetLife crowd gets a proper upset watch.
Both cases written 2026-07-04, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 25% belongs to the draw.
Brazil 4-3-34-3-3 NorwayAt this Stage
This is the glamour side of the bracket doing its best impression of a trap. Brazil needed a late turn to escape Japan 2-1, and Raphinha is still only inching back from a hamstring injury. Norway arrive lighter on history but heavier on clarity: their first World Cup knockout win came through exactly the usual route, Antonio Nusa stretching the game and Erling Haaland eventually making the last touch feel inevitable. The prize is a quarter-final against Mexico or England. Brazil have the deeper cast and the tournament muscle memory; Norway have the one striker no favourite wants to see with the game still level after an hour.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-final
The briefing
Storylines
- Norway's round-of-32 win over Côte d'Ivoire was their first World Cup knockout victory.
- Brazil beat Japan 2-1 but needed a comeback, not a procession.
- Raphinha has returned to light training after a hamstring injury, but reports still frame him as unlikely to start against Norway.
- The winner goes to the quarter-finals against Mexico or England.
The coaches
Carlo Ancelotti Brazil
Brazil's first foreign coach in over six decades; keeps the shape balanced around a Casemiro-Bruno Guimarães base and Vinícius Júnior's left-sided danger.
Ståle Solbakken Norway
The long-serving Norway boss builds around Haaland and Ødegaard, with direct service, set pieces and Nusa's pace stretching matches open.
Availability
| Raphinha | Doubt — back in light training after a hamstring injury, but ESPN Brasil reporting cited by Barca Blaugranes says Brazil see little chance of using him against Norway | Barca Blaugranes / ESPN Brasil |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English and Telemundo in Spanish, with streaming through Fox One and Peacock; Tubi carries the Spanish-language simulcast. (FOX Sports / Telemundo World Cup listings, as of 2026-07-04)
Weather: Open-air MetLife night, with storm risk still the watch item; Norwegian weather reporting said thunder could arrive later, with the heat easing toward roughly 30-32°C. (VG weather report for Norway-Brazil, as of 2026-07-02)
Venue: New York/New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium), East Rutherford, NJ, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.
