World Cup 2026 pages
Sports · World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
USAvs
Belgium
Monday, July 6, 2026 · 8:00 p.m. ET · Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, WA
Watch: FOX · Telemundo
My pick: Belgium advance · locked 2026-07-05 04:25 UTCPrediction
This is about as close to a coin-flip as the round offers, and the home crowd makes it closer, but Belgium have the finishers. Rudi Garcia can call on De Bruyne's passing, Lukaku's hold-up play, and the pace of Doku and Trossard, and their comeback against Senegal showed a team that keeps scoring even when the game goes wrong. The USA press well and will have Lumen Field roaring, but the suspension of Balogun blunts their attack, leaving Ricardo Pepi or Haji Wright to lead the line against Courtois. Mauricio Pochettino's organisation should keep it tight, yet Belgium's extra quality should tell. 2-1 Belgium, though extra time would not surprise.
The case for USA
36% to winThe USA have the crowd, the legs and a manager in Mauricio Pochettino who has them organised and aggressive. Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie can make the midfield a physical contest, Christian Pulisic is a game-breaker on the ball, and Lumen Field will be as loud as any venue Belgium have faced. Even without Balogun, if the hosts turn this into a high-tempo scrap and land an early blow, Belgium's ageing spine can be got at.
The case for Belgium
38% to winBelgium simply hold more match-winners. Kevin De Bruyne remains the most dangerous passer left in the tournament, Romelu Lukaku is a proven knockout finisher, and Doku and Trossard give Garcia game-changing pace off either flank. They have won six in a row against the USA and just proved their nerve by overturning a two-goal deficit against Senegal. Weather the crowd early and their quality should decide it.
Both cases written 2026-07-05, before kickoff — they freeze into the record exactly as written, however the match goes. The percentages are mine, quoted to a decimal because false precision is funnier — the unclaimed 26% belongs to the draw.
USA 4-2-3-14-2-3-1 BelgiumAt this Stage
The bracket's true toss-up, and a rematch loaded with history. The USA topped Group D and dispatched Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–0 to reach the last 16, chasing a first quarter-final since 2002 on home soil — but they do it without Folarin Balogun, suspended after his round-of-32 red card, and against the one opponent that owns them. Belgium have won six straight meetings, including the 2014 last-16 tie that Tim Howard nearly stole single-handed before Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku settled it, and they arrive on a high after clawing back from two goals down to beat Senegal on a 120th-minute Youri Tielemans penalty. A raucous Seattle night is the equaliser the USA need; the winner earns a quarter-final against Portugal or Spain. Deeper squad against louder building — this one could go the distance again.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-final
The briefing
Storylines
- A rematch of the 2014 World Cup last 16, when Belgium beat the USA 2-1 after extra time despite 16 saves from Tim Howard; Belgium have won all six meetings since the USA's 3-0 victory back in 1930.
- The USA are chasing their first World Cup quarter-final since 2002, on home soil, but are without Folarin Balogun after his round-of-32 red card.
- Belgium reached the last 16 with a stunning comeback, scoring twice late and winning 3-2 after extra time on a 120th-minute Youri Tielemans penalty against Senegal.
- Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, the pair who sank the USA in 2014, are both still leading Belgium's attack a dozen years on.
The coaches
Mauricio Pochettino USA
The Argentine took the USA job in 2024 and has them pressing high and organised; on home soil he is chasing the country's deepest World Cup run in a generation.
Rudi Garcia Belgium
The Frenchman's Belgium blend an experienced spine — Courtois, De Bruyne, Lukaku — with the pace of Doku and Trossard, and have just shown they can win from two down.
Availability
| Folarin Balogun | Suspended — serves a one-match ban after his red card in the round-of-32 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina; Ricardo Pepi or Haji Wright steps in up front | NBC Sports / RotoWire R16 |
| Romelu Lukaku | Expected to start — leads the line again after featuring in the extra-time comeback win over Senegal | Sports Mole / RotoWire R16 |
Availability drifts hourly in tournament week — every row carries its source and date for exactly that reason.
Watch: FOX in English (free over the air, or stream on Fox One) and Telemundo in Spanish (stream on Peacock); the free Tubi simulcast carries Telemundo's Spanish feed. (FOX Sports / Telemundo World Cup TV schedule (6 Jul 2026), as of 2026-07-05)
Weather: Early July in Seattle usually means a mild, dry evening at the open-air Lumen Field — comfortable temperatures in the 60s°F after a warm afternoon, with little rain risk this time of year; a precise forecast will firm up nearer kickoff. (Seasonal outlook (NWS Seattle); specific forecast to be confirmed closer to kickoff, as of 2026-07-05)
Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, WA, United States — FIFA strips sponsor names for the tournament; the everyday name is in parentheses.